Calculate the expected value (EV) of your sports bets to determine if they have positive long-term value. EV is a key metric for assessing bet quality and making profitable betting decisions.
Expected Value Calculator
Your honest assessment of the true probability of winning
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) measures the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet if you were to place the same bet many times over.
Why EV Matters
Consistently betting with positive EV is the foundation of profitable sports betting. Even bets that lose can be "good bets" if they have positive EV over the long run.
The EV Formula
EV = (Probability of Win × Potential Profit) - (Probability of Loss × Stake)
Or simplified: EV% = (Decimal Odds × Your Probability%) - 100%
Interpreting Results
- Positive EV: Profitable in the long run
- Negative EV: Unprofitable in the long run
- EV = 0: Break-even bet
EV Betting Strategy
Be Realistic: Your probability estimates must be accurate for EV to be meaningful. Overconfidence leads to mistakenly believing you have positive EV.
Accept Variance: Even with positive EV, you'll experience losing streaks. Focus on the process, not individual results.
Specialize: Develop edge in specific markets or sports rather than betting broadly.
Shop for the Best Odds: Small differences in odds can turn a negative EV bet into a positive one.
Common EV Betting Mistakes
Overestimating Probabilities
Many bettors overestimate their edge, believing they have positive EV when they don't. Be brutally honest in your probability assessments.
Ignoring the Vig
Remember that bookmakers build their profit margin (vig) into the odds. To overcome this, your edge needs to be greater than the bookmaker's margin.
Chasing Losses
Sticking to positive EV bets requires discipline. Don't abandon your strategy after losses by making larger or riskier bets to "catch up."