Betting ABC
Essential terms and concepts every sports bettor should understand. From bankroll management to statistical modeling.
A
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Betting on a team to perform better than the point spread set by oddsmakers. For example, if the Patriots are -7 against the Jets, they must win by more than 7 points for a Patriots ATS bet to win.
- Arbitrage
- A betting strategy where a bettor places wagers on all possible outcomes of an event at odds that guarantee a profit regardless of the result. This opportunity arises when different sportsbooks offer different odds on the same event.
- Action
- Any type of wager placed on a sporting event. If a bettor has "action" on a game, it means they have money at stake on the outcome.
B
- Bankroll Management
- A methodology for managing your betting funds to maximize long-term profits and minimize the risk of ruin. Proper bankroll management involves setting bet sizes as a percentage of your total funds based on the perceived edge and confidence level.
- Backdoor Cover
- When a team covers the spread in the final moments of a game, often in a meaningless way that doesn't affect the actual winner.
C
- Closing Line
- The final betting line offered by a sportsbook right before a game begins. The ability to consistently beat the closing line is considered a strong indicator of a bettor's long-term profitability.
- Closing Line Value (CLV)
- The difference between the odds at which a bettor placed their wager and the closing line. Positive CLV occurs when a bettor gets better odds than were available at close, indicating they identified value before the market corrected.
- Contrarian Betting
- A strategy of betting against public opinion or the popular side. This approach is based on the premise that the public often overvalues favorites and popular teams, creating value on the opposing side.
D
- Dime Line
- A betting line with a 10-cent difference between the favorite and underdog in a money line bet, such as -150/+140. This represents the bookmaker's commission or "vig."
- Dog (Underdog)
- A team or competitor expected to lose a particular game or match. Underdogs are represented with a plus sign (+) in point spread and moneyline odds.
E
- Expected Value (EV)
- A calculation that determines the average outcome of a bet if it were placed many times. Positive expected value (+EV) indicates a profitable bet over the long run.
- Edge
- The mathematical advantage a bettor has on a particular wager. An edge exists when the probability of an outcome occurring is greater than what the odds imply. Finding and exploiting edges is the primary goal of professional sports bettors.
F
- Fade
- To bet against a particular team, outcome, or public consensus. "Fading the public" is a common strategy among sophisticated bettors who capitalize on public biases.
- Flat Betting
- A betting strategy where the same amount is wagered on each bet regardless of confidence level or perceived edge. While less optimal than proportional betting, flat betting provides simplicity and reduced variance.
- Futures Bet
- A wager placed on an event that will be decided in the future, such as betting on a team to win the championship before the season begins.
H
- Hedging
- Placing a bet on the opposite side of an original wager to guarantee a profit or minimize loss. This strategy is often used with futures bets or when line movement creates arbitrage opportunities.
- Hook
- The half-point in a point spread (e.g., 7.5 instead of 7). The hook eliminates the possibility of a push and is often critical in close games.
- Handle
- The total amount of money wagered on a particular event or at a sportsbook.
I
- Implied Probability
- The probability of an outcome occurring as suggested by the odds. For example, odds of +200 imply a 33.3% probability. Finding discrepancies between implied and actual probabilities is key to profitable betting.
- In-Play Betting
- Also known as live betting, this refers to placing wagers while an event is in progress. Odds fluctuate in real-time based on the current state of the game.
J
- Juice (Vig)
- The commission a sportsbook charges for accepting a bet. Standard juice is -110 on spread bets, meaning bettors must risk $110 to win $100. Reducing juice increases a bettor's expected ROI.
K
- Kelly Criterion
- A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal bet size based on the perceived edge and odds. Many professional bettors use a fractional Kelly approach to reduce variance.
- Key Numbers
- The most common margins of victory in a sport, particularly important in football where games often end with point differentials of 3, 7, 10, 14, etc. Understanding key numbers is crucial for spread betting.
L
- Line Movement
- The shifting of odds or point spreads from their opening number to the closing line. Line movement can be caused by betting volume, injury news, or sharp action.
- Lock
- A bet perceived to have an extremely high probability of winning. However, experienced bettors understand that there is no such thing as a guaranteed win in sports betting. Treat anyone selling "locks" with skepticism.
M
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- A computational algorithm that uses repeated random sampling to model game outcomes thousands of times, establishing confidence intervals and true probabilities for sports betting.
- Middle
- A betting strategy where a bettor places wagers on both sides of a line that has moved, creating a situation where both bets can win if the final result falls between the two numbers.
- Money Line
- A bet on which team will win outright, regardless of the point spread. American odds format shows favorites with a negative number and underdogs with a positive number.
O
- Over/Under (Total)
- A bet on whether the combined score of both teams will be higher (over) or lower (under) than a number set by oddsmakers.
P
- Parlay
- A single bet that links together multiple wagers, requiring all selections to win for the bet to pay out. Parlays offer higher potential returns but at significantly increased risk.
- Point Spread
- A handicap assigned by oddsmakers to create a margin between the favorite and underdog. Bettors wager on whether the favorite will "cover" or the underdog will beat the spread.
- Push
- When the final result lands exactly on the spread or total number, resulting in a tie — all bets are refunded. Example: a team favored by -7 wins by exactly 7 points.
R
- Regression to the Mean
- The statistical tendency for extreme outcomes to move closer to average over time. Crucial for identifying unsustainable performance outliers like unusually high shooting percentages.
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- The percentage measure of profitability calculated by dividing net profit by the total amount wagered. Professional bettors typically target ROIs of 2-10% over large sample sizes.
S
- Sharp Money
- Wagers placed by professional or highly skilled bettors. Sportsbooks monitor sharp money closely as it often indicates the 'correct' side of a bet.
- Steam Move
- A sudden, significant line movement across multiple sportsbooks, typically caused by coordinated betting from professional syndicates.
T
- Teaser
- A type of parlay bet that allows the bettor to adjust the point spread or total in their favor in exchange for reduced odds.
- True Odds
- The actual probability of an outcome occurring, as opposed to the implied probability from betting odds. Finding discrepancies between true odds and implied odds is the fundamental goal of advantage betting.
U
- Unit
- A standardized betting amount representing a consistent percentage of a bettor's bankroll (typically 1-5%). Using units rather than dollar amounts allows for consistent risk management and more meaningful performance tracking.
V
- Value
- A bet that offers positive expected returns based on a discrepancy between the implied probability of the odds and the true probability of the outcome. Finding value is the cornerstone of profitable sports betting.
- Variance
- The mathematical measure of how individual results can differ from the expected average outcome. High variance means results can swing dramatically in the short term.
- Vigorish (Vig)
- The commission charged by a sportsbook on bets, also known as juice or margin. Standard vig on point spread bets is -110 on both sides.
W
- Wong Teaser
- A teaser strategy focusing on crossing key numbers in football, particularly teasing favorites down from -7.5 to -1.5 or underdogs up from +1.5 to +7.5. When executed properly, Wong teasers can offer positive expected value.
Z
- Zero-Sum Game
- A situation where one participant's gain is exactly balanced by another's loss. Sports betting is actually negative-sum for bettors collectively due to the vig — unless you can consistently beat the closing line.