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Statistics
Numbers Don't Lie
Proven success through data-driven analysis and years of experience
Per GameData Points Per Game
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Expert predictions and detailed analysis updated daily
Sports Analytics
Predictive Modeling
My sophisticated methodology combines advanced statistics, data science, and machine learning to identify the most valuable betting opportunities. Each pick comes with a detailed writeup explaining my analysis and reasoning.
- Bayesian Statistical Models
- I employ Bayesian statistics to systematically incorporate prior knowledge into probabilistic forecasts, with continuous model updating as new data becomes available.
- Monte Carlo Simulations
- My approach utilizes thousands of game simulations through Monte Carlo methods to realistically model uncertainty and calculate robust probability intervals for various outcomes.
- Machine Learning & Data Science
- I leverage advanced algorithms like gradient boosting and neural networks to analyze over 3,000 variables per game, with automated data processing via Python and SQL databases.
import numpy as np
from scipy.special import expit as sigmoid
teams = {t: 1500 + np.random.randn()*25 for t in ['LAL','BOS','MIL','PHI','MIA','GSW','NYK','DAL','DEN','CHI']}
schedule = [(np.random.choice(list(teams)), np.random.choice(list(teams))) for _ in range(500) if _ % 11 != 0]
def elo_prob(r1, r2): return 1 / (1 + 10 ** ((r2 - r1) / 400))
def simulate_result(a, b): return int(elo_prob(teams[a], teams[b]) + np.random.normal(0, 1) > 0.5)
def update_rating(r, s, expected, k=20): return r + k * (s - expected)
results = []
for a, b in schedule:
res = simulate_result(a, b)
ea, eb = elo_prob(teams[a], teams[b]), elo_prob(teams[b], teams[a])
teams[a], teams[b] = update_rating(teams[a], res, ea), update_rating(teams[b], 1 - res, eb)
results.append(res)
X = np.array([[teams[a], teams[b], elo_prob(teams[a], teams[b])] for a, b in schedule])
y = np.array(results)
w = np.linalg.pinv(X.T @ X) @ X.T @ y
predict = lambda a, b: sigmoid(np.dot([teams[a], teams[b], elo_prob(teams[a], teams[b])], w))
bets = [(a, b, predict(a, b)) for a, b in schedule if abs(predict(a, b) - 0.5) > 0.2]Follow us on X for real-time updates
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